在高科技股票泡沫越烧越旺的九十年代后期,大名鼎鼎的 siliconinvestor.com 曾是美国股民最聚集的地方。当年最牛的科技龙头股是戴尔电脑(DELL)。
1999年12月31日,siliconinvestor.com BBS 上转载了 Bloomberg 的一篇报道是:
Dell Tops List of S&P 500 Best Performers in 1990s
全文如下:
New York, Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Dell Computer Corp., the No. 1 direct seller of personal computers, is the best-performing stock this decade in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
A $5,000 investment in the Round Rock, Texas, company at the end of 1989 would be worth $4.5 million today. The stock returned 88,918 percent in that time.
``They have the best business model for selling PCs,' said Alan Loewenstein, co-manager of the John Hancock Global Technology Fund, which held 451,000 Dell shares as of the end of April. ``Michael Dell was able to see that if he could lower his costs, their profits would increase.'
Unlike its competitors, Dell builds computers only when it has received an order from a customer, allowing it to keep little inventory in its factories.
Accounting for stock splits, Dell shares sold for 5.7 cents each at the end of 1989. The stock closed today to 51.
Loewenstein, whose fund is up 129 percent this year, said Dell is still worth buying because ``it's one of the few relatively cheap technology stocks.' Dell sells for about 50 times next year's expected earnings per share, and the company is expected to post 40 percent profit growth.
从那时至今,DELL股票的表现如下(12年从$51到现在$9.68):
我知道在 siliconinvestor.com 的 DELL 版上有个人从一、两万块钱买DELL股票开始,鼎盛时期身价上百万,可是在纳斯达克股市泡沫破裂后,还死守着DELL股票好多年。
当然也有个别好的故事, Michael Burry 是当年 siliconinvestor.com 的 Value Investing 版上第三位上帖的人,他在那个版面上活跃了好几年,他现在已经是个身价亿万的基金经理了,以做空次贷债券CDS的第一人留名青史。
老话说,上百年的股市里没有多少新鲜事,韭菜割了一茬又一茬,“野火烧不尽,春风吹又生”。
果然不假啊。
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